What aspect of future persecution does the reasonable possibility standard focus on?

The reasonable possibility standard focuses on actual future risks encountered by the applicant. This standard requires asylum officers to evaluate whether it is more likely than not that the applicant will face persecution if returned to their country. This involves examining evidence of past persecution, country conditions, and the specific circumstances surrounding the individual case to determine if there is a credible threat of harm.

While fears based on historical data, hypothetical fears without evidence, or the majority fears expressed in society might influence an applicant's perception of risk, the reasonable possibility standard specifically addresses the likelihood of actual persecution occurring in the future. This approach emphasizes a more grounded and realistic assessment of danger, which is critical for governing asylum claims.